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=BeauEromantica

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Housing in the US Pt 1

Journal Entry: Wed Oct 1, 2008, 8:15 AM
Like everyone in the US, I have been deluged with the media ads for the upcoming elections, and of course, the current economic crisis.

This has got me to thinking about a number of ways out for the little guy, and by fixing 'Main Street', Wall street will self correct.
Unfortunately the pollies are looking at a Bank or Insurance company breaking, and wanting to fix it. Seriously folks, it broke because it was unfixable, because the basic premise was wrong.
Time to think laterally, or keep moving the deck chairs around on the Titanic.

I have read much about the economics, and having lived here for a considerable time, I think I can see some small chinks that have been ignored.

1/ Student Housing.
After their Freshman year, may students move off campus to exert their independence, and often, save money.
We all know that there are too many home foreclosures out there, and I have been looking at 3 bedroom single family homes from around $20,000 in College towns.

IF - 4 students were to get together in a 'co-op' partnership etc... They could BUY these houses outright, for no more than their annual college accommodation cost.
Sure - they would only have a quarter of a house, a share, or a percentage, but - when they finished their education, they could sell their share back to the co-op or on to the next student, and walk away with a deposit for their next home.
The more affluent students could purchase 1/2 a condo etc...
We all know that parents will often buy a condo and put their kids in, but this idea is aimed at maintaining student involvement, and getting them away from the concept of rental, or living in someone elses home.

The math:
Dorm accommodation costs from $3,500 per annum. Therefore, 4 students would contribute a minimum total of $14,000 per annum, or $42,000 over a three year period. Foreclosure properties are falling into this marketplace everyday.
Banks that hold way too many foreclosure properties, would be getting their money back, establishing a relationship with students, and perhaps creating a low interest rate based on a bulk relationship with Colleges.

There are many more aspects to this, and I believe that You can come up with the pros and cons as well as I can.

Wrinkles? Sure! But students would gain much, and have little to lose, and the banks would be smiling all the way to....hmmm ...Banks can't smile!!
This may teach a valuable lesson - that partnerships and collaboration, can really help.
Your thoughts?


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  • Watching: Spam being burnt at the stake
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:iconphydeau:
I like the math and the concept. I'm curious to know if there are enough students to cover all of the houses (and I know a lot of the homes in foreclosure can't be within a feasible distance to a college). More than that, are there enough students who can afford the $42,000 up front? Most, I think, get their money for hosing on a quarter or semester basis. Otherwise, we'd be looking at a situation where they'd have to finance the homes, and that's how those homes got in trouble in the first place.

Interesting idea. I'll have to think about this one.

I do agree that fixing Main Street is the best way to fix Wall Street.

--
"Creativity is allowing yourself to make mistakes. Art is knowing which ones to keep." --Scott Adams
:iconbeaueromantica:
There are 1000 students walking onto Main Street from virtually every campus, every year. There are a million of 'em across the country - easy.

That's 250,000 condos required. Currently the News says - 'there are more than a million condos up for foreclosure each year' - plus probably just as many where people are bailing to miss foreclosure.

Not all of those are in College towns of course, and someone will have better numbers than me - but if 250,000 condos at $40,000 are purchased, that will be... wait for it.. $10,000,000,000.00 back into the banking sector per year, that is currently sitting in decaying wood. Thats 10 billion. Thats a damn good start.

--
Models' Folios at :
OMP & ModelDancer
Art -Works are at:
eRomantica
:iconaurora0x0:
Wow, where to start.

I've been renting to college students for years. Allow me to give you some feedback/generalizations on them.
1. They aren't looking for long term commitments.
2. It's tough to find 4 students that like each other enough to live together for > 1 year (and even that is stretching it; most co-op rentals of my house ended within 6 mo).
3. Students have no credit rating; they'd never get the loan because the banks wouldn't go for it.
4. I wouldn't blame the banks for not giving loans; they're higher risk than middle-american families that actually have jobs/careers.

And for the $10bn in bank deposits that you just quoted, it's not even a dent. The current estimated losses from bank failures is an estimated $3 trillion. The $700bn bailout was only for two banks; others have failed since then.
:iconaurora0x0:
You're right that the market will fix itself but allowing it to do so by itself will be painful and there are many people that will lose fortunes.

Consider that before a bank fails it's going to call in some of it's loans from other banks. If those other banks can't pay up, both banks fail. This starts a chain reaction throughout the whole world (which is what we're seeing right now; RBHC of the UK, the 3rd largest bank in the world, just failed and was purchased by Lloyds TSB; never mind the other banks, worldwide that are failing).

What this means is that the bank members are losing money because each gov't only insures bank holdings up to a certain amount. For the US, the FDIC guarantees that $100,000 will be repaid to the account holder.. that's it.

That may seem like a lot to you and me, but what about those people and companies that have hundreds of millions invested in the market? Any money sitting in cash or escrow or bank bonds disappears. *poof* The next step is that the big investors either pull from the market in a selling frenzy (which has just happened this week) which pulls the market down even further.

No, by the senate denying the bailouts, we're going to see more bank failures soon which will result in overall corporate fear which will mean less spending overall, which will mean less money going through the market which will mean less sails for corporations, which means more people out of work, which means fewer people can afford their homes which means more foreclosures which means more banks fail and so on and so on and so on.

As for the "pollies" running around saying "we will bring fundamental change" and use words like "accountability" and "corruption", it's all just positioning and crowd by pointing the finger at someone that Joe Average can get mad at. The banking industry/market is generally accountable and non-corrupt as it is (ever hear of Sarbanes-Oxley?) This crisis is just one more thing that they can grand stand on to make us think that they're trying to do something good for us when they get elected.

Anyways, it's not a fundamental problem with the banking industry; it's a fundamental problem with the market and and Joe Average.

I saw this crash coming in 2004 when my house doubled in market value in a year. The truth is that everyone was trying to climb the property ladder and now that the ladder has crumpled, everyone without a safety line is falling off.
:iconbeaueromantica:
I'm sure you are entirely correct - but that may be a generalization based on your experiences, and that doesn't appear to involve ownership.

Of course, the real issue is to get them to purchase outright, or with a bank/college sponsored low interest or free loan - the banks would get their capital return but with a lower or zero interest - a much better position than the banks are currently in.

Most students aren't looking for long term commitments, but most are also not paying for lost rent accommodation - their parents are (or guaranteeing a student loan that includes the accommodation factor) It may be that the parents are more involved in the process - and also run as guarantor for this purchase/loan, but independence is only available to the responsible..

Four students that are tied together in a partnership can be ugly. It can also be a reality check that creates working relationships. It won't work for all, but Part 2 (to be posted), addresses that contingency.

While the $10bn may seem small change, the process does involve people, from an early age in the economy of the nation, and is one of a series of steps that has a huge impact in the long term economy of other nations.

Where this system has been running, a percentage of 'condo students' tend to swap between themselves as far as their living arrangements go, but retain their shareholding in the ownership of their own condo.


Part 2 is on it's way, and may address some of your points also.

--
Models' Folios at :
OMP & ModelDancer
Art -Works are at:
eRomantica
:iconbeaueromantica:
I admit to my lack of depth in the knowledge of the broader market, although the domino effect is well understood.
I'm an Autralian, and have a great deal of depth in the property market there - and like anyone coming into a new market, I can see anomalies and differences, perhaps more easily than those that have the depth of local knowledge.

You have gone back to Wall St, I'm trying to find the way for Joe Average to stay on Main St. and not fall into the back alleys.

The Australian residential property market has risen an average of 17% per annum for more than 25 years, the most stable economy in the Western World, and the lowest interest rates as well. As a tiny population in a large country, you would expect property to be cheap, but conversely, it averages 3 to 4 times more expensive than US properties. It is brattish to offer advice to such a big brother, that has 15 times the population, but these are not times to stay quiet.

If this or any other blog, effects change, to accept any new principle that made one life easier, then I would be very proud.

The ultimate in the Capitalist Society, is the propping of the financial and industrial sectors by a government. The fear of the US Government of appearing too 'communist or socialist' has always led it away from bailing out the people that are effected - in favour of the corporations that have created the problem.

The problem with the bailout, remind sme of getting a bad meal at a restaurant - when I complained, I got a voucher for another (potentially bad meal). Not an answer. If big busines has caused the problem by mismanaging money - why on earth would we trust them to save the planet, by throwing even more money at the same culprits.

Strong governments need to save the productivity sector - the people - when thre is a disaster - this is the Katrina fix... Throw money at the wind, not the people that are starving.

NO, a complete rethink is required, and while I am not able to see all the elements, every positive move needs to be embraced.

Once again... if I can get people to think outside the box, and do something entirely different - anyone's different - I'm happy.

--
Models' Folios at :
OMP & ModelDancer
Art -Works are at:
eRomantica
:iconseattleslough:
I'm not sure you meant to, but you seem to imply here that the FDIC insures securities. As I think you know, the FDIC insures deposits at banks.

People pulling money out of the market has nothing to do with the $100,000 limit on FDIC insurance of bank deposits.

You seem to deny that there's no fundamental problem with the banking industry. Please. I'm no fan of regulation, the market, or Joe Average, but surely you can't claim that the banking industry doesn't share at least some of the blame. As you said above, "everyone without a safety line is falling off." That, of course, includes banks as well.

--
"You must give some time to your fellow men. Even if it's a little thing, do something for others - something for which you get no pay but the privilege of doing it."
:iconaurora0x0:
I'm not sure you meant to, but you seem to imply here that the FDIC insures securities. As I think you know, the FDIC insures deposits at banks.

Ergo my statement, Any money sitting in cash or escrow or bank bonds disappears.

My comments about securities was due to the knock-on effect of an unstable market.
:iconaurora0x0:
As for there being no fault of the banks, sure there's some blame there, but then I don't fault them for it; it's the reality of the free market.

People look at the rising housing prices and say, "Damn, I want a piece of that!" and so they go to their bank. The bank says, "Nu-uh, we don't like you as a candidate".

Then they get pissed at their bank, leave and find a mortgage with another company. Your old bank sees this and notices a trend which makes them say, "Wait, our customers are going elsewhere and that elsewhere is making a fortune; Damn! I want a piece of that!" and so the cycle goes.

So is it mismanagment by the banks? In part, sure. But then why are all of those people defaulting on their loans right now? Is it because of the banks? No, it's because the people that bought the houses took mortgages that they could barely afford on a low interest rate.

When the Fed raised the interest rates to try to combat inflation and stabilize the growth, the bottom fell out.

Who's to blame? You, the banks or the Fed? The only right answer here is 'you'. The banks were responding to market pressure (as they do) and a seeming short sightedness in thinking that it wasn't all going to come down.

But if you claim that banks are fundamentally flawed then what you are really saying that the whole concept of a free market, itself, is fundamentally flawed. Oh, and you might as well make carrying debt illegal too, because that was a prime contributor too.

Anyways, I stand to make a [very small] fortune from this crash. I've cashed out of the market and I'm waiting for the bottom where I'll jump back back in and make 200% profit (like I did after the bubble burst). /me watches the prices go down and the people become homeless and cheers! :(

Cheers,
Dave.

Shoutboard

Thank you for the print requests.
I do not use the DA print service, as I cannot maintain quality control.

Consequently all images are hand printed to produce the finest results.

All images are available as Limited Edition prints on Archival Museum Quality Cotton paper. Each will be printed on a 12 colour Giclee Printer and signed and numbered discretely on the border and have no watermark.
Of each image there will be:

10 only of
16 x 24" (500x750mm) $120 each

and 10 only of
11 x 16" (275x500mm) $80 each

While the images are Limited Edition, I retain the sole right to reproduce them in magazines and books.

Postage worldwide is $12 (Rolled in a Post Tube) Plus $1.00 per extra print in the same tube.

Thanks for your interest.

Beau

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Beaumania...
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:hug: you are a very special person.. I am glad our paths crossed..:blackrose:
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See you soon matey!!
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You are a champion!!
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:thumb50638876: Give it a try - its fun
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What is your current location? 

44%
94 deviants said North America
32%
68 deviants said Europe
15%
32 deviants said Australia
3%
7 deviants said Asia
3%
6 deviants said Space shuttle
2%
5 deviants said South America
1%
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Sharing

dA is a place for collaboration.
Christmas is a time for sharing.

Let's get this coming year right, and share.

Think about sharing by:

-Opening your home to a person that can't afford that hotel night...

-Bringing in the neighbors toters while they are away...

-Giving some un-needed gifts to charity - or someone that really needs them.

-Reclaim the streets - walk with friends -maybe take someone elses dog for a walk, and go that extra block toward the wrong side of town.

It's the simple stuff that takes the pain away and makes others want to give back.

Try it... it works.

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